Forecasting

A humanoid robot in a robotics lab studies a holographic display of a robotic hand beside a workbench of actuators.

Sep 20, 20264 min read

From chatbots to agents: the road to general intelligence

ChatGPT made AI a household word in two months. The more important shift came after, when models learned to reason step by step and then to act on their own. Here is how that happened, and why it matters.

History
Agents

Sep 17, 20263 min read

The intelligence explosion: the argument and its objections

In 1965, I. J. Good argued that the first machine able to improve itself would be the last invention humanity ever needed to make. Sixty years on, how well does the argument hold up?

Foundations
Forecasting